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Well, Rollo, as far as I can make out your answers were similar to my own when I asked myself the same questions after the Brexit vote apart from a couple of responses.
There are a few 'ifs' in there but here I am as usual responding off the top of my head.
JIT production of cars means, to put it briefly, building to order. In that way, capital is somewhat preserved rather than lying around in storage waiting for a buyer. As far as negotiations are concerned, I have always understood, if the government fails to pull off the deal it is after, we may see production of such large items disappear from British shores.
The resurgence of the rag trade is not likely to bring low prices for the public and choice may become restricted as well as buying power. To begin material production as well as clothing production on the scale needed is going to take time. For those on low incomes, TKM, H & M and Matalan have proved to be a boon but what will the cost of their clothing be like in a year or two if everything goes belly-up with negotiations. We may need to train new, and retrain redundant engineers for a new set of engineering skills - I hope the government doesn't leave that to the last minute.
What of our energy? Will we see rises as the overseas companies and governments (yes, governments) who have large holdings in our power production decide that their profit margins need to be increased so they can pay higher wages to their own nationals in order for their lifestyles to be improved (at the cost of ours)?
We may see our income tax rise to pay for an increased number of unemployed as well as indirect taxes but, hey, what ho, we have money to burn don't we?
Finally, the then government let the Brexit camp run away with the ball. They failed to inform the public of all possible outcomes and some needed it spelt out for them. In my opinion, Cameron failed to grasp the mettle. He should have shouted louder than the opposition rather than, as I see it, act with the complacency of someone who thinks he has it in the bag - in no small way due to the lack of experience and quality of the sycophants who appeared to surround him.
Everyone has something to learn from this and in the light of the heading of this thread we may well find an increasing bigotry directed at us when we holiday in Europe. Who can blame them - it's human nature?
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yeah, well you have it pretty well nailed on.
Practially everything in the UK is foreign owned / controlled from Boots to making the Mini. The Tories are planning a de facto privatisation of the NHS.
As you say these foreign concerns will will react by any of increasing £ prices as the currency sags, pulling out. Large firms such as Nissan can wait-n-see but a lot of SMEs are already moving. For instance Lush Cosmetics in Poole has cancelled an expansion of 4000 jobs which will nwo be in E Europe.
The capital, will and skills to set up new mass manufacturing in the UK do not exist. Even if they did the Treasury would strangle them at birth.
Yes, brexit will hit those on low incomes harder than anybody. Those earning north of £ 100K (family) will hardly see a problem. Oddly enough the well off voted remain and the poor leave. None so queer as folk.
The UK runs a deficit with the outside world of 7%. Sustainable level is 3%. This has been financed through forex inflows for investment and the property bubbles. Right now such inflows are down by about half on a year ago. If they don't pick up then there will be v unpleasant consequences.
For those who have mortgages of any kind here is something few people realise. Although the mortgage may be from a High Street bank or B.S. the reality is that the ultimate holder of the mortgage tends to be an anonymous bank the mortgagee has never heard of. Very often the principal holder trades off the mortgage interest payments into a tradable financial product (dreivative). Now the stinger. If the ostensilbe lender i.e. Hight Street B.S. cannot make the payments then the holder of the derivative will come calling and the mortgagee could find himself with a demand for £ 200K and up in short order. That is what happened in the USA 2008 with all the flaky mortgages. It neaarly happened in the UK too and would have done without the actions of BOfE and Gordon Brown.
Now we have an even bigger mortgage bubbles for reswidential, B2L and commercial far bigger than in 2008. It is balanced like an elephant on a pinhead supported by foreign currency inflows. Not the best of timing then to kick away the supports under sterling.
A failed brexit with a very angry chunk of the population will not be an attractive environment to invest in when there are so many other options.
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Don't worry about the scaremongering Brexiteers.
Everything is going to be lovely. We all love roller coasters don't we.
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As a side note when are you moving to France Rollo ?
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Oh dear, another rough ride today.
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